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Updated: Jun 3, 2021

The Canucks 2021 season ground to a halt nearly invisibly, without fans in attendance due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and being played at noon on a Wednesday. Whether you were at work or a bar that faces a giant car wash you probably didn’t catch it. Maybe you caught the highlight package of this final regular season game and noticed the futility of an essentially all new bottom six. “How come they don’t play Canucks-style hockey or more goodly together?“ I don’t know Jim. Maybe immediately after the Canucks highlights YouTube autoplayed the highlights of an intense playoff hockey game, played on the same day as this last Canucks regular season game in order to complete their contract incentive/ NHLPA obligations, and you decided the Canucks have a long way to go before they contend for a playoff berth let alone a Stanley Cup. Are they?


Here is how the team was comprised on that sunny afternoon in Vancouver, along with their cap hits starting next season, and their contract status thereafter, Restricted Free Agent (RFA) or Unrestricted (UFA):


FORWARDS


1st line: Highmore (1 yr $725K > RFA) - Horvat (2 yrs $5.5M > UFA) - Lind (RFA)


2nd: Höglander (2 yrs $892K > RFA) - Miller (2 yrs $5.2M > UFA) - Boeser (1 yr $5.875M > RFA)


3rd: Michaelis (RFA) - Graovac (UFA) - Hawryluk (RFA)


4th: Vesey (UFA) - Boyd (UFA) - Lockwood (1 yr $843K > RFA)


DEFENCEMEN


1st pairing: Hughes (!RFA!) - Hamonic (UFA)

2nd: Rathbone (1 yr $925K) - Myers (3 yrs $6M > UFA)

3rd: Schmidt (4 yrs $5.95M) - Chatfield (*R-UFA)


GOALIES


Holtby (1 yr $4.3M > UFA)

Demko (5 yrs $5M > UFA)


INJURIES

Ferland (LTIR 2 yrs $3.5M > UFA) - Beagle (LTIR 1 yr $3M > UFA) - Pettersson (!RFA!) - Bailey (RFA)


SAT

Pearson (3 yrs $3.25M > UFA) - Roussel (1 yr $3M > UFA) - Motte (1 yr $1.23M > RFA) - Sutter (UFA) - MacEwen (1 yr $835K > RFA) - Baertschi (UFA) - Virtanen (1 yr $2.55M > RFA) - Juolevi (RFA) - Edler (UFA)


Taxi squad: Eriksson (1 yr $4.88M > UFA) Silovs (RFA) - Gadjovich (RFA) - Bowen (RFA) - Sautner (UFA) - Rafferty (*R-UFA)

This contract sucks: Luongo (1 yr $3.035M > Panthers GM)


2021-22 CAP HIT


Cap hit next season: $66.5M

Projected cap space: $15M


(*stats courtesy of CapFriendly.com check them out!)

THE LUONGO SITUATION


I have to give a big shout out to Mr. Roberto Luongo! I love and respect you, let me just preface the proceeding cap analysis with that, and want you to realize I’m more appreciating the Mafia Don move made by Dave Tallon than denigrating your Vancouver legacy for having taken it. I still consider you the best goalie in Canucks history to date (Demko TBA) and you always spoke your mind and let your true feelings and personality shine through when asked questions instead of clinging to the comfort blanket of clichés. You were always self-deprecating, almost to the point of social dysmorphia, kind, funny and caring. You’re not Messier, you’re the anti-Messier. Your Vancouver passport is stamped for lifetime, unlimited neighbourhood access!

Mr. Luongo is also; however, cashing a $3M Aquilini Group cheque next year, which counts against the Canucks 2022 salary cap, despite having retired a Florida Panther following the 2018-19 season. Luongo of the 12-year contract penned in 2009. Luongo of the conundrum as whether to retire versus go on long term injury reserve (LTIR) versus being made Special Advisor to then President & General Manager of the Florida Panthers, Dave Tallon.

Let’s distill this complex issue as concisely as possible. Had Luongo gone on LTIR, as had been done by several players with similar massive contracts coming out of the 2000’s, the Canucks would have counted $800K, the amount they agreed to retain in salary in the trade with Florida, towards their cap until the end of next season. Florida would have paid $200,000 of actual money to Lou next year with the Canucks topping Luongo’s contract up to $1M.

His 2019-20 cap hit for Florida would have been $1.6M. $1M for 2020-2021 (now known simply as the 2021 season), and $1M for 2021-22. The reality is that Luongo chose retirement to save Florida $600K in cap space in 2019-20 in exchange, unofficially, for a management position… My intuition tells me that Dave Tallon also hates Jim Benning. Their $1M cap hits for both seasons running 2020-2022 are slightly below the $1.1M ‘recapture penalty’ the retirement triggered, especially when considering ownership would have only stroked $200K in actual cheques. It’s part save $600K, most of a 4th line forward or a 7th defenceman, in 2019-20 and part ‘take THAT Vancouver’; it has to be! Vancouver’s ‘recapture penalty’ is $3,035,212 through next season. That’s a 20-30 goal 2nd liner. That’s almost half a Pistol Petey. Luongo chose retirement over LTIR, which was his prerogative, even though 40 year-old goalie hips, groins and knees rip like paper and the truth of his ability to play beyond 2019 lies somewhere in the middle.

THE 2021-22 SEASON


Since Luongo counts $3M against the cap for doing nothing next year and Loui Eriksson $6M for similar production we start behind the 8-ball. The Eriksson saga, the plummeting production after signing his 6 year at $6M per contract, ends now folks! Owed $4M in actual money next season, the final of his contract, $3M of which is bonus and $1M salary, a team looking to meet the salary cap minimum would love to add Mr. Little Things and his $6M cap hit for the bargain price of $1M in real dollars. Can they unload him before his July 1 $3M bonus? Maybe with a sweetener? The happy reality this year is that worst case scenario is $3M against the cap and a 7th round pick or bag of pucks from Ottawa or Phoenix in a trade. Come July 2 Loui Eriksson becomes a hot commodity. Seriously. So who IS playing?


FORWARDS


1st line: Miller ($5.2M) - Pettersson ($8M) - Boeser ($5.86)


2nd: Pearson ($3.25M) - Horvat ($5.5M) - Höglander ($892K)


3rd: Podkolzin ($925K) - Highmore ($725K) - Motte ($1.23M)


4th: MacEwen ($835K) - Graovac ($700K) - Roussel ($3M)


DEFENCEMEN


1st pairing: Hughes ($7M) - Schmidt ($5.95M)


2nd: Rathbone ($925K) - Myers ($5M)


3rd: Juolevi ($925K) - Edler ($2M)


GOALIES


Demko ($5M)

DiPietro ($812K)


CAP HIT


$64M in signed contracts

+ Luongo $3,000,000

+ Eriksson $3,000,000

$70M

Available: $11.5M


2021-2022 ROSTER DECISIONS


FORWARDS

The latest coming from Elliotte Friedman, the confidante of choice for many hockey players and executives for whatever inexplicable reason, is that the young cornerstone of the Canucks, Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson, are being presented as a packaged pair, à la Kane and Toews, by superagents Pat Brisson and J.P. Barry. The rumour mill churns and $15 million per year is approximate to get it done for the pair so I gave Petey $8M cuz he’s bigger. Their agents made public comments recently in relation to these negotiations comparing the pros and cons of five versus eight year deals. The fan in me hopes it‘s the latter!


Reuniting the Lotto Line with everyone healthy to start next year is a no brainer! Pettersson thrives alongside the snarly J.T. Miller and loses a bit of the fear small men inherently feel when twirling around the ice at 40 km/h with men who have 8 inches and 80 pounds on them. Michael Ferlund would have been the perfect enforcer with a scoring touch to ride shotgun and pummel cheap shot artists taking liberties on Elias, and was brought in for just that purpose, but with concussions threatening not only his career, but also his quality of life after I expect him to ride out his contract on the LTIR barring a miraculous recovery. I wish him all the best!


Bo Horvat and Tanner Pearson look like a pair of science club co-Presidents with fitness addictions. Anchored together the past few years with a revolving cast of wingers they may have found their forever match in pugnacious rookie Nils Höglander. The trio looked dangerous at times, though long stretches indifferent offensive urgency and matching up against the other team’s top line hampered point totals. Höglander brought an agitating style and raised the intensity level of the line with every spastic, desperate forecheck. Look for a breakout year for Horvat and Höglander and cohesion on that line that follows them into the playoffs next year.


The bottom six has been dreadful since reliable veteran centres Jay Beagle and Brandon Sutter were lost to injury. A sea of Granlunds. Beagle is on LTIR and rumblings are he may stay there through next year and Sutter is a UFA sadly past his prime unlikely to be resigned. The Canucks as constructed above have about $7.5M spread out amongst their bottom six with declining Roussel’s $3M more than doubling the next best paid, sparkplug Tyler Motte’s $1.2M. There is a belief management would like to move on from Roussel who has been slowed by injuries and is coming off a disappointing season. Add in William Lockwood as the extra forward, who is signed next year at $843K and available cap space reduces to around $11M.

DEFENCEMEN


Quinn Hughes is a generational talent. His play may have taken a slight step back after losing Chris Tanev and his friendship and calming influence to free agency, but he will win a Norris Trophy one day. Wanting to mimic Tanev’s stay-at-home, right handed style that saw Hughes lead all rookies in scoring last season, and being robbed of the Calder Trophy, Benning signed Travis Hamonic. At times Hamonic made easy, solid plays and at times he coughed up pucks up the middle. Smart money has Bennington moving on and promoting a Rathbone or moving Nate Schmidt, signed long-term to anchor the blueline, alongside Quinn and giving him some stability. But Green has a right handed defenceman fetish so I envision the addition of UFA Tyson Barrie who Jim has been courting for some time.

Edler is still an effective defensive player, but his offence took a nosedive after being forced off the powerplay by Hughes’ brilliance. $6M is not his worth. Sign him for 1 year at $2M every year, even if he sits, until he decides to retire. Let’s reward his loyalty with our own! Slide him alongside fellow golden haired Nordic Statesman Olli Juolevi (even though Olli doesn’t look enough like Matthew Tkachuk for my liking) to fill out the third pair. Add $1M to the cap for a seventh option and we have $10M in cap space left.


GOALIES


$9.3M is a lot spend on goaltending. The NHL is big business and whether overtly, by public comment, or covertly by rumour mill fueling, club management leak information, and disinformation, in hopes of moulding public opinion, catching the ear of potential trade partners or turning a coveted free agent’s head. Benning, though as cunning and eloquent as a lumbering defensive defenceman who has suffered countless head traumas, floated through his various sources the idea that our neighbours to the south, the Seattle Kraken, might just take Holtby and his $4.3M cap hit in the expansion draft this summer. He then tried to showcase Holtby, with Kraken scouts in attendance, and Braden promptly let in a half dozen. Fingers crossed the distant waft of Vezina glory entices them as it did us! Mikey DiPietro, he of 1 game of NHL experience and 7.00 GAA, deserves a chance to sink or swim next year as the backup and I know Demmer will take care of him like Canucks culture dictates.


THE $10,000,000 QUESTION


What will the $10M the Canucks enjoy in cap space buy you this off-season? The greatest goal scorer in NHL history will be a unrestricted free agent. Alex Ovechkin, fresh off a 13-year, $124M contract, is not expected to test the market (see Edler above). Defenceman Dougie Hamilton is a UFA and no defenceman has scored more goals in the last four years than him despite missing significant time due to injury. Expect him to get Pietrangelo money in the $9M range. Landeskog, Nugent-Hopkins, Hall, Foligno and Barrie would all fit under this cap and fill Canuck needs, but as UFAs they decide their own fate. Here’s to hoping Benning can get some fish in the boat.


Benning will no doubt attempt to trade out some trouble contracts, Virtanen, Eriksson and Roussel, but his track record suggests it won’t happen. Expect a step forward for the Canucks next year, but expect it mostly from internal competition and young, driven players chosen by a draft-savy club keeping their feet moving!


Scotty Allan



Photo: nhl.com


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